A Sunni supporter of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri takes part in a protest against Hezbollah’s political maneuvering, near the village of Barja on Monday, Jan. 24, 2011. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

(Update: Lebanese President Michel Suleiman on Tuesday named Hezbollah-backed candidate Najib Mikati as prime minister-designate. Amid continuing street protests by Lebanese angry about Hezbollah’s political maneuvering, Mikati pledged to “work in the interests of all Lebanese” and said the explosive dispute over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon should be resolved through dialogue.)

(CNSNews.com) – Two months after Israel’s top military officer warned of a potential Hezbollah “coup” in Lebanon, the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shi’ite militia is poised to take de facto control of the government in Beirut, without having fired a shot.

Supporters of embattled Sunni caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri called for fresh protests on Tuesday, after Hezbollah secured the necessary parliamentary support to nominate its favored candidate, pro-Syrian business tycoon Najib Mikati, as Hariri’s successor.

Hezbollah, designated by the State Department as a foreign terrorist organization, brought down Hariri’s U.S.-backed “unity” government two weeks ago by withdrawing Hezbollah-aligned ministers from the cabinet.

The move came amid fears of new sectarian conflict, sparked by a bitter dispute over a U.N.-backed international investigation into the 2005 assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hezbollah operatives are widely believed to be among those implicated, and a Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) judge is now considering sealed indictments.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah engineered the government downfall after Hariri refused demands to boycott the U.S.-supported tribunal.

Nasrallah said Sunday that if Hezbollah’s candidate for prime minister is successful, it and its allies would seek to form a new national unity government. Hariri has already said that his March 14 bloc will not take part in any Hezbollah-led government.

The March 14 bloc had appealed on Sunday to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to exercise his responsibility to protect Lebanese democracy in the face of the Hezbollah “coup.” (Suleiman, a former army commander, is viewed by critics as having pro-Syria and pro-Hezbollah sympathies.)

Some in March 14 see Iran’s hand behind Lebanon’s latest political turmoil. In calling for public protests in Lebanon’s second city, Tripoli, on Tuesday, March 14 lawmaker Khaled Dahar referred to “the Persian scheme,” the independent Lebanese news site Ya Libnan reported.

Najib Mikati, Hezbollah’s favored candidate for prime minister, waves after meeting with Lebanese President Michel Suleiman near Beirut on Monday. (AP Photo/Assaad Ahmad)

Syria’s Assad regime, which dominated Lebanon decades until forced to withdraw its army in the aftermath of the Hariri assassination, is also playing a key role in developments.

Mikati held talks in Damascus last week with Syrian President Bashir Assad. Days earlier, Assad met with Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who at the weekend publicly joined the Hezbollah camp and – together with six of his bloc’s 11 lawmakers – cast decisive votes on Monday for Mikati.

And unconfirmed Lebanese media reports said Hezbollah and other Shi’ite figures visited Damascus at the weekend to secure Assad’s endorsement for Mikati in an agreement that stipulated the new prime minister would have to end cooperation with the STL.

‘Problematic’

Before 9/11, Hezbollah was responsible for the deaths of more Americans in terrorist attacks than any other terror group. The U.S. has designated it as a foreign terrorist organization since 1997.

Hezbollah in a 2006 cross-border raid killed and kidnapped Israeli soldiers, triggering a month-long war during which the Shi’ite group fired thousands of rockets into Israeli territory. Israel says Hezbollah has since rearmed, with Syrian help, and now boasts a stockpile of more than 40,000 rockets.

A Hezbollah-led government in Beirut would raise awkward questions for the U.N. Security Council, on which Lebanon sits as a non-permanent member until the end of 2011.

Hezbollah’s very existence as an armed militia violates two Security Council resolutions – resolution 1559 of 2004, which calls for “the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias,” and resolution 1701 of 2006, which requires “the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that … there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state.”

Even before the current events, Hezbollah’s presence in the Lebanese government has produced some sensitive moments in the Security Council, such as when the Lebanese envoy defended Hezbollah in the council chamber, protesting Israel’s description of the group as a terrorist organization.

Some Lebanese accuse Hezbollah’s ally, Iran, of being behind the current political turmoil. This file picture shows Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reviewing an honor guard alongside Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, in Beirut on Wednesday Oct. 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Lebanon also chose not to vote with the U.S.-led majority when the council last June passed a new Iran sanctions resolution. Its decision to abstain was attributed to a failure to reach agreement within the government, as Hezbollah opposed the measure against its ally in Tehran.

The upheaval in Beirut also poses a new challenge for the Obama administration, which just two months ago managed to persuade concerned members of Congress that U.S. military and economic aid to Lebanon – worth more than $700 million over the past five years – was in the U.S. national interest and would not benefit Hezbollah.

State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said Monday the administration was closely monitoring the situation, but stopped short of saying the U.S. would cut assistance to Lebanon should Hezbollah lead or dominate the next government.

Reiterating that the U.S. regards Hezbollah as “a terrorist organization,” he said that “the larger the role played by Hezbollah in this government the more problematic it is for the relationship between the United States and Lebanon.”

Crowley did not define what an acceptably sized Hezbollah role would be; the group had two ministers in the last government and along with its allies controlled one-third of the 30 cabinet seats as well as 57 seats in the 128-member parliament.

US aid in the spotlight

U.S. Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.), then chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, placed a hold on $100 million in aid to Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) last summer, following a deadly Aug. 3 firefight along the Lebanon-Israel border.

He and others expressed concern that Hezbollah could benefit from the aid and also about possible LAF-Hezbollah collaboration against U.S. ally Israel – concerns not helped by LAF commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi’s public remarks at the time thanking Iran for its “readiness to help Lebanon’s army facing the Zionists’ aggression.”

Berman lifted the hold on U.S. aid in November, saying he had been reassured after classified briefings that U.S. military assistance would not fall into Hezbollah’s hands.

Although Hezbollah is regarded as far stronger a military force than the LAF, the national army’s response to the current crisis will be closely watched inside and outside the country.

Amid scattered anti-Hezbollah protests across the country Monday the LAF warned against any interference with Lebanese citizens’ security.

At the weekend, the LAF quoted Kahwagi as saying during a visit to a military barracks that the army was ready to “intervene” if necessary.

“General Kahwagi also voiced the army’s determination to impose peace and stability apart from political developments in the country and confirmed that the army will always lie in wait for any side which will be attempting to instigate strife or disturbance or those who are trying to take advantage of the circumstances to escalate the situation and expose the citizens and their properties to danger,” the LAF said in a statement.

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), who succeeded Berman at the helm of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, earlier this month urged strong support for “pro-democracy and pro-freedom Lebanese.”

“The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis is working to put an end to any hope for sovereignty, democracy, and freedom for Lebanon and the Lebanese people,” she warned. “The United States and other responsible nations must not repeat past mistakes where we failed to stand up to those who threaten Lebanon and all free nations.”