Iowa Tied in 4th Quarter: Paul 20%; Romney 19%, Santorum 18%--Margin of Error +/-2.7

January 3, 2012 - 10:17 AM
Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas (AP Photo/Toni Sandys)

(CNSNews.com) - A poll conducted Saturday and Sunday of 1,340 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers shows a three-way virtual tie going into tonight’s caucuses, with Rep. Ron Paul at 20 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 19 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 18 percent.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was in fourth place in this poll, with 14 percent.

The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling, has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 points.

An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of 729 likely caucus goers, also completed on Sunday, showed similar results. It put Romney at 22.7 percent, Paul at 22.4 percent, Santorum at 18.0 percent, and Gingrich at 16.1 percent.

The Public Policy Polling survey of 1,340 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers was conducted through automated phone interviews. The firm describes itself as a “Democratic polling company,” but says that the “poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.”

It surveyed the largest sampling of likely caucus goers of any public survey done of the Republican field in Iowa so far.

“The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum's side,” said the analysis Public Policy Polling released with the survey. “He's moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support.”

The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of 729 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers interviewed 506 Republicans, 187 Independents, and 36 Democrats. Among the Republicans polled, Romney had 23.3 percent, Santorum had 20.4 percent, and Paul had 17.3 percent. Among the Independents, Paul had 38.2 percent, Romney had 18.4 percent, and Santorum had 15.0 percent. Among the 36 Democrats polled, Paul had 31.1 percent, Romney had 16.2 percent, and Santorum had 0.0 percent.

The Republican presidential caucuses will take place tonight all across Iowa.