Polls: Hillary, Bush Hold Leads

July 7, 2008 - 8:25 PM

(CNSNews.com) - First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton has moved ahead of New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in that state's US Senate Race according to a survey of 1,058 registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac College from March 28th to April 3rd. The survey has Clinton ahead by a margin of 46 to 43 percent. Given the three- percent margin of error, the contest is considered a statistical dead heat.

Last month, Giuliani led by seven points, 48 to 41 percent, but that was before the shooting death of Patrick Dorismond, a 26-year-old African American who was killed by New York City Police on March 16th during what officials characterized as a drug sting run amuck.

After Dorismond's death, the mayor released information concerning the suspect's past criminal record, including sealed information disclosing crimes committed as a juvenile. The decline in the mayor's numbers is widely believed to be the result of the shooting, one of several in recent months, and his handling of the latest incident.

According to the survey, Giuliani lost support from New York City residents, Catholic voters and white women, perhaps the most pivotal of the groups. The numbers are also down in the suburbs of New York City, where the mayor has traditionally done well.

According to the survey, since the shooting, the mayor's lead in the suburbs has declined from 59 percent to 31 percent for Clinton in March to 49 to 39 percent in April.

In New York City, Clinton now leads the mayor by a margin of 64 percent to 27 percent. In March, Clinton led the mayor 56 percent to 35 percent in the city. Upstate, the mayor continues to lead 51 to 37 percent, unchanged from last month.

In the presidential race, Texas Governor George W Bush leads Vice President Al Gore among white married women by a margin of 47 to 39 percent, according to a poll of 1,217 likely voters conducted from March 21st to the 24th for EMILY's List, an organization that traditionally supports pro-choice candidates. The survey was released on Wednesday. Both campaigns have targeted this diverse group, which includes woman all along the economic, educational and social spectrum.

While the survey finds white, married women agreeing more often with Gore than Bush on abortion, gun control and the environment, it indicates an equal concern over moral issues and it's there that Bush has an advantage.

The survey also showed Gore leading Bush among all women, by a margin of 46 percent to 40 percent. However, among African-American women, the vice-president leads Bush by a margin of 62 to 38 percent. Among white women, who characterized themselves as evangelicals, Bush enjoys a 34 percent margin.

The two presidential candidates are in a statistical dead heat among Independent women voters, as well as female white mid-westerners, female white westerners and female white mainline Protestants However, Gore faces a gender gap of his own with the poll showing Bush favored among men by a 10 point margin.

In the area of education, among all women with children, 47 percent of those surveyed said they had more faith in Democrats to improve education, versus 24 percent who gave the nod to Republicans. Among white, married mothers, Republicans did better, although Democrats continued to lead by a margin of 40 percent to 29 percent.