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Romney, Santorum ‘Essentially Tied’ with Obama in New Poll – Santorum Leads Romney in Nomination Race
February 22, 2012 - 4:31 PM
Republican primary contenders Mitt Romney, left, and Rick Santorum. (AP Photo)
(CNSNews.com) – Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are essentially tied with President Barack Obama in a new national poll from Quinnipiac University. Romney is in a statistical dead-heat with Obama while Santorum trails the president by one point. In addition, the poll shows that Santorum currently has a wide lead over Romney in the GOP nomination race.
Obama is in a statistical tie with Romney 46-44 percent and leads Santorum by one point, 47-44 percent. Peter Brown, assistant director at Quinnipiac, said that both Republican candidates were essentially tied with Obama.
“Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are essentially in a statistical dead heat with the president,” Brown said at a news conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday.
“The margin over Romney is a statistical tie – it’s two points – [and] it’s a very slight edge for the president over Santorum at three points,” he said. “They’re essentially tied is what you should take away from this.”
Brown said that at this point in the race, controversies over such issues as Romney’s tax returns and Santorum’s positions on women in the military and contraception use have not hurt the GOP against Obama.
“At least nationally, despite all the controversies in the Republican primary, it does not appear to be hurting the Republican vote as they look toward November,” said Brown.
The poll also shows Santorum with a wide lead over Romney in the race for the Republican nomination, 35-26 percent. In a head-to-head match up, Santorum leads Romney 50-37 percent. That result is highly volatile, Brown explained, because it is driven by momentum from the most recent primaries, which Santorum won, and as such is highly susceptible to change.
President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)
“Rick Santorum has a nine-point lead over Mitt Romney among Republican voters and independent voters who lean Republican. It’s a solid lead – it’s not dramatic – but it’s solid,” Brown said. “But leads, as we all know this year, have been somewhat ethereal during the campaign – they’ve come and gone.”
Santorum’s lead over Romney is driven by his leads among men and evangelical Christians, the poll finds, results that mirror the rises of other candidates, such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) who have previously rode those groups to prominence in the Republican primary contest.
Santorum leads Romney 35-24 percent among men and 45-19 percent among evangelicals.
Santorum also leads Romney among self-described Tea Party Republicans, 47-16, and among self-described conservatives, 41-23, percent. Brown noted though that these groups have been very fickle in who they support most, backing Gingrich when he seemed to be doing well and now backing Santorum.
“Today, they support Santorum more,” he said. “[But] when Santorum was at three percent overall, they liked Gingrich a lot better.”
“When Gingrich was hot nationally, he was the favorite of white evangelical and Tea Party types,” said Brown. “But Gingrich is not hot nationally anymore, he’s trailing fairly substantially and white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters – just like other voters – have seen their preferences change in that way, and many of them have moved from Gingrich to Santorum.”
