Congressional Budget Office: U.S. Population Growth Will Be ‘Entirely’ Driven by Immigration by 2043 Staff | August 29, 2022 | 2:00pm EDT
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U.S.-Mexico border near Yuma, Ariz. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
U.S.-Mexico border near Yuma, Ariz. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

( - The Congressional Budget Office is predicting in a demographics report it published in July that by 2043 population growth in the United States will be “entirely” driven by net immigration.

“By 2043, deaths exceed births,” says the CBO report, “population growth after that point is driven entirely by net immigration, in CBO’s projections.”

“Over the course of the next decade, immigration accounts for about three-quarters of the overall increase in the size of the population, and the net effects of fertility and mortality account for the remaining quarter,” says the report.

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“After 2032, population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth in 2043 and beyond,” it says.

“Population growth is determined by births, deaths, and net immigration,” says the CBO report. “In CBO’s projections, fertility rates remain low and immigration becomes an increasingly important part of overall population growth.”

According to the CBO’s projections, the number of babies born to American women will continue below the “replacement rate” into the future.

“In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate falls to 1.60 births per woman in 2021, rises to 1.75 births per woman in 2030, and remains at that value thereafter,” it says. “That rate is below the replacement rate—the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration—of about 2.1 births per woman.”

The CBO projects that the numbers of both legal and illegal immigrants coming to the United States will increase in the coming years.

“CBO develops its projections of net immigration (the number of all people who enter the United States less the number who leave in that year) using three categories: lawful permanent residents (LPRs), who are authorized to work, liable to pay income taxes, and eligible for most federal programs; legal temporary residents (LTRs), whose eligibility for federal programs is limited; and foreign-born people without legal status, who are generally not eligible for federal programs,” explains the CBO report.

“Under current law, annual net immigration to the United States would rise from 950,000 people, on average, in the first decade of the projection period to 1.1 million people, on average, in the third decade, CBO projects,” says the report.

“LPRs, which are the largest category of projected total net flows, rise from 800,000 to 870,000 people per year, on average, from the first decade to the third decade in CBO’s projections,” it says.

“Net flows of foreign-born people without legal status rise from 80,000 people per year, on average, in the first decade to 150,000 people per year in the third decade,” says the report. “CBO projects net flows of LTRs to be 80,000 people per year, on average, throughout the 30-year projection period.”

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