Although presidential candidates Joe Biden (D) and Donald Trump (R) were neck and neck in September, each with 47% support among Iowa voters, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump has pulled into the lead with a strong 48% support compared to Biden's 41% support.
As the Des Moines Register reported on Oct. 31, "The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren't sure and 5% don't want to say for whom they will vote. In September's Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%."
Independents, again, are key in this race. This is a group Trump carried in 2016.— Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR) October 31, 2020
Our September poll showed Biden leading with independents 50% to 38% (+12)
Today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35% (+14)https://t.co/0CcpU32GDn
Analysis of the Iowa Poll by Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for The Register, shows that Trump has won over a lot of Independent voters, a group that was essential to his 2016 Iowa win.
"In the Register’s September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%," said Pfannenstiel. "But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%."
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., “I think that the key to what's happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents. That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it's come back to be a Trump asset.”
Biden has also lost ground with women, said The Register. In September, he had a 20-point lead with women against Trump but now that lead is only 9%.
“We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September,” Selzer said. “And while there is still a big gap among men — they’re going for Trump by a 24-point margin — it's just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there's just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.”
For the poll, the Des Moines Register/Medicom group interviewed, by telephone, 814 Iowan adults who said they would "definitely vote or have already voted in the 2020 general election for president, U.S. Senate and other offices." The margin of error was 3.4%.