NBC's Ohio Poll: 45% of Likely Voters Conservative, 23% Liberal--And Obama's Up 6

Terence P. Jeffrey | November 3, 2012 | 9:15am EDT
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(AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

(CNSNews.com) - An NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll of likely Ohio voters published on Nov. 3 shows that 45 percent say they are conservative, 23 percent say they are liberal and Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent.

The poll said that in calculating that Obama is up 51 percent to 45 percent in Ohio it included what it called "leaners." "Leaners," the polls says, "are defined as voters who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate."

The NBC-WSJ-Marist poll of 971 likely voters, which had a margin of error of +/-3.1 points, also listed 3 percent of likely Ohio voters as "undecided" (and apparently not "leaning") and 1 percent as intending to vote for someone other than Obama or Romney for president.

The likely voter pool in this survey included 38 percent who said they were Democrats, 29 percent who said they were Republicans, 32 percent who said they were Independents and 1 percent who said they had another affiliation.

Five percent of these likely voters described themselves as "very liberal" and 18 percent described themselves as "liberal" for a total of 23 percent liberal. Eleven percent described themselves as "very conservative" and 34 percent as "conservative" for a total of 45 percent conservative.

Thus, in this NBC-WSJ-Marist poll of likely Ohio voters, self-described conservatives outnumbered self-described Democrats by 7 points but self-described Obama voters out-numbered conservatives by 6 points. According to this poll, Obama is outpolling the Democratic Party by 13 points.

(AP Photo/David Kohl)

A Rasmussen Reports poll published Friday showed a tighter race in Ohio, with Obama and Romney each having the support of 49 percent of likely voters. This survey interviewed 750 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4 points.

However, the Rasmussen poll showed a modest trend toward Obama over the past week.

"At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50 percent to 48 percent advantage," said the Rasmussen Report. "It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then."

According to Rasmussen, Obama has taken a large lead among the considerable portion of Ohio voters who have already cast ballots in the presidential election.

"Forty percent of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56 percent to 41 percent lead," said the Rasmussen Report.

"Both candidates earn better than 90 percent support from voters in their respective parties," said the report. "The president is ahead 50 percent to 41 percent among voters not affiliated with either major political party."

Since Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican president, won Ohio in 1860, every Republican who has been elected president has won Ohio. In the era since World War II, Ohio has gone with the winner in every presidential election except one. In 1960, it picked Nixon over Kennedy.

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