Bush Expected to Follow His Own Mideast Policy

Julie Stahl | July 7, 2008 | 8:09pm EDT
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Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - Analysts Thursday rebuffed an Israeli media report saying the incoming administration of President-elect George W. Bush would follow in the footsteps of President Clinton when it comes to Middle East policy.

A radio report here said Bush would adopt a set of proposals, presented by Clinton several weeks ago as the framework for a possible peace deal, as a basis for continuing negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

This view was based on contacts with officials in Washington who will serve in the Bush administration. Bush believes that Clinton's proposals reflect U.S. policy, the report said.

However, analysts said on Thursday that they did not see Bush adopting Clinton's peace proposals and emphasis on Israeli-Palestinian relations. He would instead concentrate on a wider Middle East picture.

"I don't see George W. adhering to Clinton's policy on Oslo, as he will not cling to [Clinton's] policy on Iraq, Iran, missile defense [or], anti-terrorism [measures]," said Yoram Ettinger, former Israeli government liaison to the U.S. Congress.

The "Oslo" Accords, named for the Norwegian capital where they were secretly formulated, formed the basis for the last seven years of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Clinton, who invested much time and effort in that diplomatic process, has been unable to mediate a final accord based on those principles.

Oslo critics, and even some former supporters on both sides, have ruled that the accords are effectively "dead," pointing to the violence and terrorism that has wracked Israel and the disputed territories over the past four months.

Ettinger said the next administration would more likely concentrate on the wider region - on "mutual threats" and "joint interests" shared by Israel and the U.S. rather than the "narrow contexts" of Israeli-Arab relations.

The Bush administration would be "much tougher" with elements in Iraq, Syria and even the Palestine Liberation Organization on the "issue of compliance" with agreements.

Ettinger said the Bush administration would have a "different worldview," in which
Israel would assume more of a role of "strategic ally" than it did in the Clinton years.

"The new administration will not focus on Middle East peace," said Tom Neumann, executive director of the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.

Neumann said with a new administration in Washington - and possibly a new government in Jerusalem after elections for prime minister on February 6 - a "new set of rules" will be established to determine the course negotiations will take.

In his Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday, Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell described how the new administration would view the Middle East.

"We seek a lasting peace, as have all previous administrations, based on unshakable support for the security of Israel, the legitimate aspiration of the Palestinian people, our friendships in the Arab world, and a hard-headed recognition that the parties themselves must make the peace," he told the Senate.

Neumann, who is currently visiting Israel with a delegation of political leaders, said Powell's comments represented the "rhetoric of the region," but the key issue was how the "interests" of the various parties were defined.

The change of governments was an "opportunity for a fresh start," he said. In the dying days of several American administrations there had been a "last minute hustle" to make peace in the Middle East.

Clinton, like former presidents George Bush and Jimmy Carter, wanted to achieve the "glorious crown" of Middle East peacemaker.

But if there is going to be peace, Neumann argued, it will have to be brought about "in a natural way."

Top-level Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are scheduled to meet again on Thursday after PA Chairman Yasser Arafat and Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami met last night in Cairo. No breakthroughs were reported in that meeting, initiated by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

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