Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - Any escalation in Palestinian violence or renewed confrontation with Lebanese-based terrorists along Israel's northern border could spark a regional conflict, according to an Israeli army assessment.
But analysts in Israel have said in reaction that even if regional players want war, there are other factors that will keep them in check.
In a conversation with President Bush on Thursday, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon pledged that he would not escalate the current security situation or lead the region into war. He added, however, that the decision may not be in his hands.
According to the army's annual strategic assessment, PA Chairman Yasser Arafat is weak and could at best bring about a lull in fighting. He could also be danger of completely losing control as Hamas and other radical forces gain strength, it said.
Details of the assessment, being prepared for military chief Lt.-Gen. Shaul Mofaz, have appeared in the Israeli media.
The report describes both the Palestinian and northern fronts as currently "stable but fragile." Any serious incident, such as a major terror attack, could draw either front into war, it added.
But analysts here believe other factors would likely prevent Israel's neighbors from entering an all-out war.
Rafael Israeli, professor of Islamic and Middle East Studies at the Hebrew University, said he does not believe a regional war is likely at this stage.
"The main proponents of that idea don't have the means," he said, naming them as Egypt and Syria.
Israeli said Syria did not have the necessary equipment, while Egypt would immediately lose its U.S. support, with Congress withdrawing all financial aid, he said.
Even if massive public opinion in the two Arab countries were to favor a war, their leaders knew only too well the disastrous consequences it would have for them.
Reuven Merhav, a former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, said that Egypt and Jordan - the only Arab states to have signed peace treaties with Israel - would not break the agreements.
Those governments want to stay in power, Merhav said, and a major war "could endanger their own regimes."
Jordan's monarchy is particularly vulnerable. More than 60 percent of the Jordanian population is Palestinian. In 1970, Arafat and the PLO were kicked out of Jordan after a violent showdown with the government, which accused Arafat of plotting to overthrow the government.
For its part, the Egyptian government faces a serious security challenge from Islamic fundamentalists.
Despite 20 years of diplomatic relations with Israel, Egypt government and media sentiment remains strongly anti-Israel.
Nonetheless Egypt, which in the past relied on the former Soviet Union for arms supplies, now gets modern military equipment from the U.S.
"The Egyptian regime knows that breaking ties with Israel would be detrimental" to relations with the U.S., Merhav said.
The only way Egypt and Jordan would enter a war against Israel, in the view of regional expert Col. Moshe Hager, is if the two governments were "overthrown by radicals."
"I don't think there is going to be a great war [now]. No one except the Iraqis wants war," he said.Palestinian front
Hager said Israel was nevertheless preparing itself for the possibility of the present conflict with the Palestinians, which has dragged on since last September, becoming worse.
The PA is weak, and the population is restless as a result of unemployment and food shortages in places.
"Now is the time that some people are taking the law into their own hands," he said. "It's a very dangerous situation for everyone."
In Hager's view, Israel must try to find a new Palestinian leadership with whom it can negotiate.
This could be done without necessarily overthrowing Arafat. The PA leader already spends much of his time abroad, he noted, and if the situation on the ground gets worse, he may leave altogether.
Hager predicted that Israel may be compelled to move back into some of the areas previously relinquished to the PA, if the security situation worsens.
Israeli of Hebrew University argued that it was time for a major re-evaluation of Israeli strategy.
Rather than simply respond when attacked by Palestinians, he said, Israel should take the step of scrapping completely the seven-year-old negotiating process known as the Oslo Accords, and starting afresh.
Even if the current violence ended and the sides returned to the table, he continued, there would be little for them to talk about.
Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak last year offered Arafat far-reaching concessions but Arafat rejected the offer and the Palestinians launched their intifada soon thereafter.
Experts say it is highly unlikely any Israeli government will offer the PA the equivalent of Barak's proposal, let alone more.